The U.S. State Department on Thursday imposed sanctions on a Chinese research institute and several companies accused of supplying equipment and technology to Pakistan's missile program.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller announced that the sanctions were imposed under the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) and the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA) on three Chinese entities, one Chinese individual, and one Pakistani entity. These sanctions target those involved in missile proliferation activities.
The U.S. alleges that the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building (RIAMB) has been involved in developing weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems. The institute reportedly assisted in the development of Pakistan's Shaheen-3 and Ababil missile systems and collaborated with Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) to supply equipment for testing missile engines for larger systems.
The statement further claimed that RIAMB has been procuring equipment for larger systems. Other Chinese companies named in the sanctions include Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment, Universal Enterprise, and Xianlongde Technology Development, along with a Pakistani company called Innovative Engineering. The individual facing sanctions is Luo Dongmei.
Pakistan has criticized the sanctions as unilateral and driven by political motives.
In response to these U.S. sanctions, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, highlighted that in the past, lists of companies suspected of involvement in missile or nuclear technology were compiled without clear evidence. She noted that some technologies and components targeted by these sanctions were not covered by any established export control system but were still broadly categorized under the restrictions.
Baloch also pointed out the double standards in how some countries, despite claiming strict adherence to export control regimes, selectively waive licensing requirements for advanced military technologies for their allies. She argued that such biased practices undermine the credibility of global nonproliferation efforts, create military imbalances, and threaten international peace and security.
It’s worth noting that earlier in April, the U.S. imposed similar sanctions on three Chinese companies and one Belarusian firm, and in October 2023, further sanctions were applied to three more Chinese companies for supplying parts and equipment to Pakistan's missile program. Back in December 2021, the U.S. government also sanctioned 13 Pakistani companies for allegedly supporting Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs.
The focus now shifts to Pakistan's missile program, the recent U.S. sanctions, and what they may mean for the country’s missile development efforts. This raises questions about the specific missiles involved and the broader concerns the U.S. has regarding Pakistan’s capabilities.
On March 23 of this year, the Babur missile was showcased for the first time during the Pakistan Day Parade. Defense analysts suggest that the Ababil missile has the capability to carry at least three nuclear warheads or nuclear payloads.
What is Pakistan's rocket program under US sanctions?
Pakistan's missile program, highlighted in the U.S. State Department's statement, includes medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Shaheen-3 and Ababil, which are classified as Multiple Reentry Vehicle (MRV) missiles. Experts regard these as among the most advanced in Pakistan's missile arsenal.
According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) of the Pakistan Army, after Pakistan initially test-fired the Ababil missile in 2017, a new variant of the medium-range surface-to-surface missile was launched on October 18, 2023. It was then publicly showcased for the first time during the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2024.
Dr. Mansoor Ahmed, a professor of Strategic and Defense Studies at the National University of Canberra, Australia, stated that the Ababil is the first missile in South Asia capable of carrying multiple warheads or nuclear weapons over a range of 2,200 km, enabling it to strike multiple targets simultaneously.
Defense experts, including Dr. Ahmed, believe that the Ababil missile can carry at least three nuclear warheads. It is designed as an MRV system that can penetrate and defeat enemy missile defense systems.
Each warhead within the Ababil missile can independently strike different targets. Dr. Ahmed points out that the missile is particularly suited for first or second strikes against high-value targets protected by Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems.
Syed Mohammad Ali, a defense analyst based in Islamabad, explained that MRV missiles can confuse missile defense systems by deploying multiple warheads toward different targets. He compared the missile's maneuverability to that of a fast bowler in cricket, who relies on swing and seam to break through a batsman’s defense.
Ali further elaborated that MRV missiles, like Ababil, are equipped with multiple independently targeted warheads that follow separate flight paths, making them difficult to intercept.
According to Dr. Ahmed, India has been developing its missile defense system for over a decade and not only tests it but also openly discusses its progress. Recently, India test-fired its first MRV missile, Agni-5, which is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 km—significantly longer than Ababil’s 2,200 km range, making Agni-5 the longest-range MRV in the world.
There are also unconfirmed reports that India’s "AgniP" missile is an MRV with a range of up to 2,000 km, according to Dr. Ahmed.
During the Shaheen-3 missile test, Lt. Gen. (retd) Khalid Ahmad Kidwai stated, "This missile is specifically designed to counter India, ensuring that India will have no place to hide."
What is Pakistan's Shaheen 3 rocket?
According to Dr. Mansoor, the Ababil missile is primarily designed to counter India, but the missile that has been a source of U.S. concern since 2021 is the Shaheen-3, which has a range of 2,740 km.
In reality, the Ababil represents the next generation of the Shaheen-3 missile. Dr. Mansoor explains that during the Shaheen-3 missile test, Lt. Gen. (retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, advisor to the National Command Authority, stated that the missile is specifically intended to counter India. Its primary objective is to target critical strategic locations in India, particularly the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and other areas in the east where India's nuclear submarine bases are being developed. The goal is to eliminate any notion that India has locations where they can hide their systems for a first or retaliatory strike that Pakistan cannot reach.
Dr. Mansoor further notes that Indian officials, including Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, have on multiple occasions made statements suggesting that India has developed capabilities to launch a preemptive strike against Pakistan.
He cites the example of the supersonic BrahMos missile, which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. India is also developing various systems capable of being launched from land, air, and sea to execute a first strike.
It is worth recalling that in 2022, a BrahMos missile accidentally landed in Pakistan, with the Indian Ministry of Defense later stating that it was an unintentional launch from India.
Dr. Mansoor suggests that India could potentially use the BrahMos missile for a conventional counter-force (first) strike against Pakistan's strategic assets and command and control centers. India could then claim that it only launched a conventional attack, but Pakistan would likely perceive such a strike as the first move in a nuclear confrontation.
He believes that in such a scenario, Pakistan must remain prepared to prevent any potential attack. This preparedness is demonstrated by Pakistan's continued development and showcasing of strategic nuclear-capable missiles like the Shaheen-3 and Ababil.
India recently tested the Agni-5 missile equipped with an MRV (Multiple Reentry Vehicle) system. This intercontinental ballistic missile has a range of at least 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers.
What concerns America?
Now, let’s turn to the concerns raised by the United States regarding these missiles.
The U.S. State Department's statement claimed that RIAMB had been involved in testing and procuring equipment for Pakistan's Shaheen-3 and Ababil missile systems, and potentially for "larger systems."
Regarding these "larger systems," Dr. Mansoor suggests this could indicate that Pakistan is developing the next generation of these missiles.
The first test of the Ababil missile was conducted in January 2017, followed by its second test six years later in October 2023. During those six years, the National Development Complex (NDC) has continuously worked on advancing this technology.
Dr. Mansoor explains that while the Shaheen-3 was already operational, the second test of Ababil, coupled with its display in March, drew attention. The display signaled that Pakistan had reached a point where research and development were complete, and the Ababil system was now fully operational.
He believes this is the primary reason for U.S. concerns. The U.S. is apprehensive that Pakistan may be working on a more advanced version of these missile systems.
Another key factor behind U.S. concerns, according to Dr. Mansoor, is the three-stage design of the Ababil missile system and its mobile launcher capability. These features make the system highly flexible, as the missile launchers can be easily concealed in various locations during an unexpected attack. Moreover, they can be quickly moved to areas where they are difficult for the enemy to detect.
Experts agree that any three-stage missile system could lay the foundation for a longer-range system.
Dr. Mansoor points out that the six-year gap between Ababil's first and second tests suggests that Pakistan is now developing this technology domestically. If Pakistan had been entirely dependent on technology from China, he argues, there would have been no reason to wait six years for the next test.
However, he also believes there has been significant advancement in the missile system, raising U.S. concerns that Pakistan may be acquiring greater capabilities. In the future, Pakistan could develop improved versions of these nuclear-capable missiles, capable of carrying larger warheads and potentially equipping Ababil with the ability to deliver multiple warheads.
It’s worth noting that in April, restrictions were imposed on the mobile launchers used for these systems. The U.S. released a fact sheet stating that Belarus-based Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant had supplied special vehicle chassis to Pakistan for its missile program.
Anxiety toward the space program?
The U.S. sanctions also reference solid rocket engines. Dr. Mansoor highlights that the U.S. is not only concerned with Pakistan's long-range Ababil missile but also with its growing space program.
It is important to note that in the April fact sheet, China’s Granpact Co., Ltd. was accused of collaborating with Pakistan’s space research organization, SUPARCO, to supply testing equipment for rocket engines. The same company was also alleged to have been providing parts to Pakistan for testing large rocket engines.
According to Dr. Mansoor, the U.S. is worried that Pakistan might be working toward developing its own indigenous space launch vehicle, especially since Pakistan has already outlined its space program vision for 2047.
He explains that advancing capabilities in space technology is crucial for nuclear deterrence, as it enables precise targeting and supports defense surveillance and other key functions.
The U.S. is concerned that Pakistan may eventually launch its own space vehicle for both military and civilian purposes, which could lead to the capability of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
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Both Pakistan and China have not signed the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), yet they continue to develop and operate missile technology.
How might these sanctions impact Pakistan’s missile program?
U.S. sanctions are not a recent development; they began in the 1970s.
Dr. Mansoor points out that these new sanctions are part of a long history of restrictions dating back to the 1970s when Pakistan launched its missile program in response to India's missile advancements, which were supported by Russia and other sources. Pakistan has always maintained close ties with China.
According to Dr. Mansoor, the latest sanctions on Chinese and Pakistani entities are unlikely to have a significant impact. He notes that Pakistan's National Development Complex (NDC) does not depend on Western technology for its missile systems, so these sanctions will have minimal effect.
He cites North Korea as an example, which, despite facing numerous sanctions, has continued to develop its missile program without substantial hindrance.
Defense and missile analyst Syed Muhammad Ali adds that Pakistan's missile program is entirely indigenous, relying on local resources and expertise. Therefore, it is expected to remain unaffected by U.S. sanctions.
He argues that these sanctions are misguided and disconnected from regional strategic realities, such as national security and the growing intercontinental capabilities of Indian missiles, which are crucial for regional and global stability.
The BBC has reached out to Pakistan's Foreign Office for comments on these new sanctions but has yet to receive a response.
For the U.S., India is a key partner in the Quad alliance. The U.S. State Department's statement also references the MTCR, a consortium of nations that regulate the export of missile technology. Dr. Mansoor notes that while Pakistan and China have not signed the MTCR, both countries comply with its provisions, particularly concerning missile systems with ranges over 300 km. Despite this, there is criticism that Pakistan and China are cooperating in missile technology development.
Dr. Mansoor contrasts this with India's missile program, which, with significant support from Russia, has advanced considerably. For instance, the BrahMos missile, initially with a 290 km range from Russian technology, has been extended to 800 km, and India is also developing a hypersonic version, with the MTCR not being a point of contention.
It is important to note that the MTCR prohibits the export of missiles with ranges exceeding 300 km and warheads over 500 kg.
Dr. Mansoor also mentions India's Agni-5 missile, which has a range of 5,000 to 8,000 km and can carry three to five warheads, and is being adapted for use on India's nuclear submarines.
India’s BrahMos missile is notable for its dual-use capability, functioning both as a conventional and a nuclear weapon. India is also developing a range of systems that could be launched from land, air, and sea, potentially for a first strike.
Dr. Mansoor points out that Pakistan lacks nuclear submarines, which complicates its strategic position. He notes that while Pakistan's defensive measures may not be fully appreciated, they are crucial for maintaining strategic stability in South Asia.
The advances made by Pakistan in response to India should not be seen as problematic. However, Dr. Mansoor highlights that India’s role as a key member of the Quad alliance, which includes Australia, Japan, and the United States, contributes to its strategic significance. India’s substantial soft power, economic strength, and dominance in research institutions across Western countries also influence global perceptions and policies.
Dr. Mansoor explains that the U.S. has broader geopolitical interests in regions such as Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East, and Taiwan, and created the Quad to counterbalance China's influence.
Tensions with China might also be a factor in the U.S. approach to Pakistan’s missile program.
Syed Muhammad Ali adds that the primary focus of the U.S. sanctions appears to be on Chinese entities rather than Pakistan, aiming to exert economic pressure on Beijing to influence its actions.
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